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Abstract To predict ecosystem change in the Arctic Ocean, understanding Arctic phytoplankton phenology is essential. We develop a marine ecosystem model focusing on phytoplankton dynamics and the competition for multiple resources based on knowledge from in situ data obtained in the Chukchi Sea. The model is designed to include the unique ecological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model successfully simulating the current paradigm for Arctic phytoplankton phenology, including both under‐ice blooms and succession of phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity experiments show that the dominance of diatoms can be sustained by lateral transportmore » of a high‐silicate water mass (Pacific Winter Water). Experiments for future scenarios show that sea ice retreat drives a decrease in large diatoms and an increase in the other relatively small non‐diatom groups. These results suggest that dominant phytoplankton groups can be shifted from diatoms to non‐diatoms under ongoing Arctic Ocean sea ice retreat.« less

Abstract A perturbative solution of simplified primitive equations for nonlinear weakly stratified upwelling over a frictional slope is found that resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The solution uses assumptions consistent with the model proposed by Lentz and Chapman, including a steady-state, constant cross-shore density gradient, no alongshore gradients, laterally inviscid, and consideration of cross-shore advection of alongshore momentum. The solution resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields (including subsurface maxima of compensational flow, not resolved by Lentz and Chapman) and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservationmore » in the stratified inviscid interior. The dynamics are similar to Lentz and Chapman; bottom stress balances alongshore wind stress in a homogeneous density ocean and is replaced by nonlinear cross-shore transport of alongshore momentum as the Burger number ( S = αN / f , where α , N , and f are the bottom slope, buoyancy frequency, Coriolis frequency, respectively) increases. When the solution uses the empirical relation between cross-shore and vertical density gradients proposed by Lentz and Chapman, vorticity conservation is not satisfied and the nonlinear momentum transport estimated by the solution linearly increases with S , asymptotically matching Lentz and Chapman for S < 1. When the solution conserves interior potential vorticity, the momentum transport is proportional to S ² for S < 1 and is in better agreement with numerical simulations.« less

A modified version of the NPZD ecosystem model is used to analytically examine the effects of predation avoidance, a possible mechanism for triggering harmful algal blooms (HAB). To resolve HAB development caused by predation avoidance, an additional phytoplankton functional group is considered, one that has slower nutrient uptake and better predation avoidance characteristics than the non-harmful phytoplankton group used in traditional NPZD models. Because the two phytoplankton groups (one non-harmful and one HAB) compete for only one resource within the same system, steady state (equilibrium) conditions cannot occur without the presence of zooplankton; only the non-harmful phytoplankton group, which defeatsmore » the HAB group in the resource competition, can survive in the equilibrium. The presence of sufficient zooplankton effectively acts to replenish the nutrient pool by consuming the non-harmful phytoplankton. When this occurs, two equilibrium states are found: one with both phytoplankton groups coexisting, and one that only includes the HAB group. Further, the condition required for equilibrium is that the total nitrogen within the system should be larger than a threshold determined by model coefficients. The threshold and feasibility of the equilibrium are sensitive to the relative HAB predation avoidance coefficient. If the coefficient is larger than the ratio of net growth rates between the HAB and non-harmful phytoplankton group, the threshold becomes infinite, and an equilibrium is not feasible. The time scale for the system to reach an equilibrium state that includes a HAB group is determined asymptotically. The dependence of a threshold condition as a controlling factor may explain the regime shift of dominant species causing HABs. The ecosystem model is fully implemented into the Regional Ocean Modeling System and applied to an idealized coastal embayment (with depths and geometry taken from San Francisco Bay) to show numerically the dominance of prey avoidance dynamics in a natural shallow water environment that includes advection and diffusion. The analytical results improve strategies for HAB modeling and provide guidance for setting model coefficients necessary to resolve a HAB event.« less